2014 Forecasted Corn Yields

Patricio Grassini, UNL Assistant Professor and Extension Cropping Systems Specialist,  and other faculty have put together forecasted corn yields for 2014 using the Hybrid-Maize Model.  Please read the full report and view the two tables showing the corn yield predictions across the Corn Belt.

Full report: 2014 Forecasted Corn Yields Based on July 20 Hybrid Maize Model Simulations

Table 1. In-season yield potential forecasts as of July 20, 2014 in the western Corn Belt.

Table 2. In-season yield potential forecasts as of July 20 in central and eastern Corn Belt.

Dr. Grassini pointed out that factors in 2014 that may cause lower yields than these forecasts, even with optimal management, include hail or flood damage. Likewise, given the large amount of rain in some areas, nitrogen leaching and/or denitrification may limit yields due to nitrogen deficiency if additional nitrogen was not applied to affected areas. In the case of dryland corn, above-normal rainfall, coupled with low rates of daily water use due to low daytime temperature, are the leading factors contributing to the above-average yield potential forecasts across the entire Corn Belt.

My Dodge County Dryland Corn Yield Model explains almost 99% of the dryland corn yield (USDA-NASS Reported Value) variation year to year from 2005-2013. Parameters include:

  1. Daily maximum temperature averaged across July (lower is better and largest factor driving yield locally)
  2. Cumulative (total) rainfall for June-July-August (Higher is better to a point, second largest factor driving yield)
  3. August humidity (Higher is better, likely correlated to lower crop water use)

If you would like to learn more about the Hybrid Maize Model or my local Dodge County Model for Dryland Corn, please contact me. If you are curious how plant greenness and biomass (NDVI correlates to yield in many cases) is doing in your area this year compared to normal, visit VegScape. If you need help using VegScape, please feel free to contact me.

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2014 Forecasted Corn Yields
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